Morgan Stanley Cautious on Coinbase with $250 Price Target

Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Coinbase with a cautious stance, assigning it an Equal Weight rating and a $250 price target. Analyst Michael Cyprys noted that this implies around 40% upside from current levels, but also highlighted a wide range of potential outcomes.

Cyprys emphasized that Coinbase has evolved significantly beyond its origins as a Bitcoin-only exchange, now offering a full-stack platform spanning retail and institutional trading, custody, stablecoins, derivatives, staking, payments, and onchain infrastructure. The company ended the second quarter with 7.6 million monthly transacting users and $246 billion of assets on the platform.

The analyst forecasts a cyclical reset in 2026, followed by a sharp rebound in 2027 and normalization in 2028, when he expects approximately $3.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA. This estimate forms the basis for Morgan Stanley's price target, which is based on 21 times that estimate, aligning with Coinbase's historical average and digital-asset peer median.

Cyprys also pointed out the potential risks associated with regulatory clarity, the company's expansion into assets such as equities and prediction markets, stablecoin and Base infrastructure. He noted that while diversification should increase earnings and provide more ways to monetize customer relationships, it does not eliminate the cyclical nature of the business.