Morgan Stanley Hints at Upcoming Bump for Coinbase

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage of Coinbase with an 'Equal Weight' rating and a price target of $250, which implies about 40% upside from current levels. However, analyst Michael Cyprys notes that this is based on a wide range of potential outcomes, justifying a neutral stance.

Cyprys emphasizes that while Coinbase has broadened its services beyond its exchange roots, it remains tied to the volatile crypto cycle. The platform now offers a full-stack service, including retail and institutional trading, custody, stablecoins, derivatives, staking, payments, and onchain infrastructure.

The analyst forecasts a cyclical reset in 2026, a sharp rebound in 2027, and normalization in 2028, when he expects about $3.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA. The price target is based on 21 times this estimate, in line with Coinbase's historical average and the digital-asset peer median.

Cyprys also highlights regulatory clarity, Coinbase's 'Everything Exchange' push into assets such as equities and prediction markets, and its stablecoin and Base infrastructure as expanding its addressable market. However, these developments also invite more competition and gradual pricing pressure.