Oil Shock Pushes Yields Higher, Testing Markets for Resilience

The recent oil shock has pushed yields higher and has had far-reaching implications across various markets. Brent crude settled above $90, while the US 10-year yield reached 4.768%, strengthening the higher-inflation, higher-rate market regime.

Nasdaq futures remain below the critical area of 29,385, and a sustained break below this level would strengthen the bearish sell-the-rally scenario. However, if Nasdaq futures reclaim and hold above 29,540-29,590, particularly if WTI also falls back below approximately $85, it could suggest that both the technical damage and the inflationary energy pressure are beginning to ease.

Bitcoin has recovered above $78,340 but still needs to break through $79,225 and then $80,000 for confirmation of its relative strength. Gold futures have weakened, with a recovery attempt failing, and need to reclaim approximately $4,489-$4,490 before the bullish repair case improves.

The cross-asset message is clear: energy is showing relative strength, while rate-sensitive growth and precious metals remain vulnerable to rising yields. This stagflationary combination means inflation pressure is increasing while economic and financial conditions may become less supportive, making it a more difficult environment for broad equity markets than a temporary geopolitical headline alone.