Peso Strength Fueled by Record-Setting Exports Under USMCA
Mexico's peso has seen significant growth in recent times due to the country's record-breaking export numbers under the USMCA framework. According to JP Spinetto, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, Mexico's disciplined approach to trade negotiations is a key factor in its economic resilience.
Under the USMCA agreement, Mexico's exports to the US reached an all-time high of $545 billion in 2025, representing a 5.8% increase from the previous year. This growth is attributed to USMCA compliance and the accelerating nearshoring trend, as companies reroute supply chains closer to the American market.
The peso has been testing levels around 17 MXN per USD, but experts warn that the currency could weaken to around 17.92 MXN per USD in the second half of 2026 due to negotiation uncertainty and potential changes to auto rules of origin and market access provisions.