Polkadot Price Stalls at $1.18 as Momentum Fades
DOT's price surged by 10.71% in 24 hours to reclaim $1.18, but technical indicators suggest it may be due for a pullback.
The cryptocurrency has broken above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.11 and is trading above every major moving average on the board. However, the MACD histogram has stalled dead at the highs, and the RSI reading of 74 indicates that buyers are exhausted in the short term.
The derivatives market is flashing a warning signal, with open interest dropping by 21.82% in 24 hours. This suggests that the rally was partially driven by a short squeeze rather than organic buying conviction. The spot market is also seeing more aggressive sellers than buyers, which could lead to a self-reinforcing liquidation cascade.
According to Luisa Crawford's analysis, the probability-weighted forward price path for DOT is as follows: 55% chance of a pullback and grind, with a target of $1.40 over the 20-30 day window; 25% chance of immediate continuation, targeting $1.29 within days; and 20% chance of a failed breakout flush, sliding back to $0.94.