Quantum Attack on Cryptocurrency May Look Like Unexplained Breach
The first sign of a quantum computer breaking modern cryptography might not be a dramatic theft of Satoshi Nakamoto's dormant Bitcoin. According to Christopher Smith, CEO and co-founder of blockchain startup Quantus Network, it could be a wave of unrelated crypto wallet breaches with no clear explanation for how an attacker did it.
When a sufficiently powerful quantum computer derives a private key from public keys exposed onchain, an attacker can move funds without compromising a wallet, device, or exchange's internal systems. This makes the arrival of 'Q-day', when quantum computers become powerful enough to break standard public-key cryptography, difficult to detect.
Smith said that the first targets may not be Satoshi's Bitcoin, but rather military systems and state secrets. However, crypto attackers could go for even more valuable keys, such as Tether's minting key, which could allow them to mint tokens out of thin air from an administrative wallet and dump them on the market.
There is no consensus on when a quantum computer capable of breaking modern cryptography will be ready. Smith estimates that it could happen by 2028, while others predict it will occur in the early 2030s. Despite the uncertainty, blockchains are already starting to migrate to post-quantum signatures.