Quantum Attack Resource Score Drops by 86%: Researchers Make Breakthrough
A recent technical study has significantly reduced the estimated resource score required for a potential quantum attack on Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study, led by Theta Labs CTO Jieyi Long and researchers from various crypto projects and academic institutions, found that the resource score decreased by approximately 86% in about two months. The original estimate was 10.75 billion points, but this new study brings it down to 1.496 billion points.
The resource score is calculated by combining the number of logical qubits required by the circuit with the number of Toffoli gates, which constitute a significant part of the processing time. The circuit used in the study required 1,151 logical qubits and 1.30 million Toffoli gates. This reduction is notable because it shows that researchers are making progress in finding more efficient ways to perform quantum operations.
Google Quantum AI announced a 2029 target for transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptography, but did not provide the details of its own circuit. In contrast, this study provides a detailed analysis of the circuit and its resource requirements. The researchers emphasized that no quantum computer capable of performing such an attack exists today, but preparations must begin years in advance.
The Ethereum Foundation has also been working on quantum security preparations, targeting December 2029 to achieve full security against quantum attacks in its execution, consensus, and data layers. Long stated that the issue must be addressed now because solutions cannot be applied retroactively and preparations can take years.