Quantum Computers Could Crack Bitcoin's Security in Under 26 Days
IonQ has published a groundbreaking study that provides a comprehensive blueprint for breaking Bitcoin's 256-bit elliptic-curve signatures using a quantum computer. The research suggests that a fault-tolerant quantum machine could solve this problem in approximately 25.7 days, although it's essential to note that this doesn't imply an imminent attack on the cryptocurrency.
The study's findings are based on a detailed analysis of the requirements needed for a quantum computer to break Bitcoin's secp256k1 elliptic-curve problem. The researchers estimate that a machine with 19,397 physical qubits would be necessary, along with quantum error correction. This is significantly lower than previous estimates, which often simplified away critical components.
IonQ's team used their Walking Cat architecture to transform the algorithm into a hardware design, achieving a reduction in resources due to advancements across the entire stack. The company's roadmap currently targets a fault-tolerant system with 10,000 physical qubits by 2027 and expects further progress around 2028.
While this study doesn't mean that Bitcoin can be cracked today, it does provide researchers with a more concrete target for evaluating when quantum attacks could become practical. The secp256k1 study serves as a demanding test of IonQ's architecture and its potential applications in chemistry, materials science, financial services, optimization, and national security.
IonQ's president of quantum computing, Chris Ballance, noted that the team compiled the computation down to the underlying error-correction primitives, allowing them to calculate a provable lower bound for the probability of completing the computation successfully. Ballance emphasized that no digital asset or cryptocurrency platform suffered an attack during the research.