Quantum Computers Pose 'Trillion-Dollar Risk' to Bitcoin
The threat of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin's cryptography is no longer a distant concern, but rather a pressing issue that requires immediate attention. According to two experts, Stefano Gogioso and Daniela Herrmann, the industry is treating this trillion-dollar risk far too casually.
Gogioso argued that fixating on a specific date for when quantum computers will break Bitcoin misses the point. The question isn't 'will it be 2030?' but rather what are the odds of a tail event by 2030 and how much would we lose? Even at 2%, the impact on Bitcoin and crypto, if not prepared, is essentially most of crypto going to zero.
Herrmann noted that estimates for practical quantum computing keep shrinking. In 2024, they estimated it would take 30 years; in 2025, 15-20 years; in 2026, three to five to ten years. Now, some experts say it could be as soon as two years.
The panel highlighted the danger that lies not in the code itself but in the psychological impact of a successful quantum attack. Gogioso explained that the real weakness is psychological: 'It's not a technical problem. It's a PR problem.' If one Satoshi-era coin moves off its wallet with a message saying 'you've been quantum punked', it could be the end of the story.
Herrmann reached for a historical parallel, the tulip mania, to illustrate how belief can stay near-universal until the instant it breaks. She warned that the moment one coin moves, it's the end of the story.