Quantum Computers Pose Trillion-Dollar Risk to Bitcoin
The threat of quantum computers breaking Bitcoin's cryptography is gaining attention in the industry. Experts Stefano Gogioso and Daniela Herrmann, speaking at the BeInCrypto Experts Council, warn that the industry is treating a trillion-dollar risk far too casually.
Gogioso argues that fixating on a date for when a quantum computer can break Bitcoin's cryptography misses the point. He says the question should be what are the odds and the cost of such an event by 2030.
According to Gogioso, even a small chance of total loss justifies action. He notes that the cost of preparing is trivial next to the cost of being wrong, citing estimates that suggest a 2% chance of loss could result in most of crypto going to zero, worth trillions of dollars.
The panel also discussed recent progress in quantum computing, with Herrmann noting that estimates for practical quantum computing have shrunk from 30 years in 2024 to just three to five to ten years in 2026. She advises preparing for the surprise instead of naming a specific year.