Quantum Fears Fail to Move Bitcoin Market

The fear of quantum decryption's impact on Bitcoin has been widely discussed since warnings were issued in 2026. However, when the market reacted to these warnings, it barely flinched.

On January 17, Jefferies removed a 10% allocation from its model portfolio, citing advances in quantum technology and replacing it with gold and gold mining stocks. The market showed no notable reaction.

In February, crypto asset manager CoinShares estimated that around 1.6 million Bitcoins could be vulnerable to quantum attacks, but only about 10,000 BTC were held in amounts large enough to be worth attacking. Bitcoin was already experiencing a decline from $90,000 to the $66,000 range due to deteriorating macro conditions and deleveraging.

The most sensational moment came on March 31 when Google's Quantum AI team published a white paper suggesting that breaking Bitcoin's encryption might be easier than thought, requiring fewer than 500,000 qubits. However, this led to a mere 2% dip in the price of Bitcoin from above $68,000 to $66,250.

The market's reaction to quantum-related headlines has been remarkably muted throughout 2026. The reason lies in the uncertainty surrounding when and how much damage a quantum computer could cause. Predictions range from 2029 to the 2040s, with estimates of vulnerable Bitcoin spanning from 1.6 million to 6.8 million coins.

In contrast, development on quantum-resistant transactions has been progressing steadily. On August 26, StarkWare announced the first quantum-resistant transaction on Bitcoin's mainnet using a method called 'Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB)'. This achievement marked an important milestone in preparing for potential threats from quantum computers.