Quantum Threat: IonQ Estimates 20,000-Qubit Breakthrough in 26 Days
A recent research paper by IonQ estimates that a 20,000-qubit quantum computer could break Bitcoin's encryption in approximately 26 days. The company published its findings using its Walking Cat architecture and Shor's algorithm, which is used to estimate the cost of running complex algorithms on a quantum machine.
IonQ stated that this is the first complete, end-to-end fault-tolerant resource estimate for running Shor's algorithm, and it aligns with systems on its hardware roadmap targeting the 2028 timeframe. The computation would require 19,397 physical qubits, 1,457 logical qubits, and 39 million Toffoli gates at the logical level.
The company emphasized that this relates to authentication and integrity rather than confidentiality, and standardized mitigation methods are available. IonQ is on track to produce a fully fault-tolerant 10,000 physical qubit system in 2027.