Quantum Threat Looms: Bitcoin Encryption Breakthrough Now 49% Likely Within Decade

A new survey by the Global Risk Institute's seventh annual Quantum Threat Timeline Report has found that the likelihood of breaking Bitcoin encryption within 10 years is now at its highest level yet, sitting between 28% and 49%. The report, authored by Dr. Michele Mosca and Dr. Marco Piani of evolutionQ, polled 26 international quantum computing experts from North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.

Half of the respondents placed the 10-year probability at roughly 50% or higher, while six rated it above 70%. At the 15-year mark, the outlook grows more definitive, with 18 out of 26 experts assessing the likelihood of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer at 50% or above.

The survey found that by 20 years, near-certainty prevails, with 92% of respondents putting the probability at 50% or higher. The findings carry direct consequences for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other major blockchains that rely on elliptic curve cryptography to secure transactions.