Robinhood Prediction Market to Set Price of BTC on September 14, 2026

The price of Bitcoin is set to be determined by Robinhood's prediction market, specifically on September 14, 2026 at 6am EDT. The market offers a range of possible prices, with corresponding probabilities for each outcome. For example, the probability of the BTC price being above $77,500 is 78 cents, while the chance of it reaching $77,600 or more is 58 cents.

The final value will be calculated by taking the average of 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices collected at the last minute before expiration. The official and final price will then be used to determine the outcome of the contract. If the prediction is correct, traders who own contracts can receive a payout, typically within an hour of event resolution.

The contract prohibits certain individuals from trading, including those employed by Source Agencies or holding material non-public information on Bitcoin.