S&P 500 Continues to Outperform Inflation Despite Recent Dips

The S&P 500 has consistently outperformed US inflation over the past two decades. According to BeInCrypto, in the last 20 years, the index has beaten inflation in 16 of those years.

Looking at a longer time frame, historical data show that the S&P 500 gained 13.5% in 2026, outpacing US consumer prices, which rose 3.4% over the 12 months through July.

The trend is also evident in recent years. In 2025, the index delivered a 14.76% real return after accounting for 2.70% inflation. The previous two years saw strong real returns as well: 21.47% in 2024 and 22.11% in 2023.

Analysts project 28.2% year-over-year earnings growth for the third quarter of 2026, with 31.2% expected across the full year. This growth is concentrated in AI infrastructure beneficiaries, who are expected to supply roughly half of index earnings growth this year.