S&P 500 or Crypto Split: Which Will Be Worth More in 2030?

A $10,000 investment in Bitcoin and XRP in August 2021 is now worth about $15,500. This compares to a similar investment in an S&P 500 fund, which would be worth around $17,900 with dividends reinvested.

However, the index took the lead only this year. In January 2026, Bitcoin started near $87,500 and XRP was around $1.90, making a $10,000 split in the two cryptocurrencies worth roughly $24,000, about $7,400 more than the $16,600 in the index.

But in just seven months of crypto falling while stocks climbing, the index took a lead that had taken the split years to build. This volatility highlights how risky crypto investments can be compared to stocks.

The S&P 500 has historically returned about 10.4% annually since 1957 with dividends reinvested. However, Goldman Sachs expects around 6.5% annual returns over the next decade due to current high valuations. A $10,000 investment in the index could grow to about $13,200 by 2030.

If Bitcoin and XRP climb back to their 2025 highs, a $10,000 split bought today would be worth roughly $26,600, which is about 70% more than the index's best forecast. However, this requires a new cycle in crypto markets, which may or may not happen.