SanDisk's New Business Model Fuels 500% Rally
SanDisk's stock has gained an impressive 500% this year, and investors are looking for more upside. The company is attempting to reduce its exposure to the cyclical NAND memory market through a new business model that includes long-term agreements with customers.
The agreements, known as New Business Models (NBMs), provide financial guarantees and fixed/variable pricing components. SanDisk expects these contracts to become its predominant way of doing business by fiscal 2026, according to its 10-K report. The company has already signed multi-year agreements with eight data-center customers, including three US hyperscalers, worth a minimum total contract value of $93.9 billion.
The NBMs will cover 50% of SanDisk's bit shipments in fiscal 2027 and 67% in fiscal 2028, providing the company with greater visibility into future volumes and profitability. The contracts also include pricing floors that support gross margins of around 80%. Additionally, SanDisk benefits from its long-standing manufacturing partnership with Kioxia Holdings, which has extended their joint venture framework through December 2034.
The company is also pursuing opportunities tied to artificial intelligence through high-bandwidth flash (HBF) technology. SanDisk and SK hynix jointly established the HBF standard to address memory-capacity constraints associated with high-bandwidth memory. The technology can provide eight to 16 times higher memory capacity at a given bandwidth, making it particularly suitable for high-context AI inference workloads.
SanDisk has completed the design of its first HBF chip and is on track for a launch in 2027, followed by mass production in 2028. The technology has received support from major cloud and AI companies, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Tenstorrent. Nvidia adoption remains pending.
From a valuation perspective, SanDisk trades at a higher forward EV/EBITDA multiple than its memory semiconductor peers, with a one-year forward multiple of 6.3 times compared to a peer average of 4.1 times. Lynx Research has issued bullish price targets, setting a $2,450 target for SanDisk and $1,325 for Micron.