Scarcity Bet: Ethereum, Solana Tokenomics Changes Could Outdo Gold by 2031

Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are both working on proposals to change their tokenomics, which could make them scarcer than gold by 2031, according to Grayscale. The asset manager estimates that if the proposals go live as written, Ethereum's annual supply growth would fall to about 0.4% by 2031, while Solana's would settle near 1.1%. This is below gold's roughly 1.8% yearly supply growth and comfortably below the U.S. Consumer Price Index's 3.3% inflation reading.

The Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 8361, nicknamed 'Tapered Issuance Burn,' would burn a rising share of validator rewards as the staking ratio climbs, phasing that burn to 100% once roughly 60.25 million ETH (about half of today's supply) is staked.

Solana's path runs through two separate Solana Improvement Documents, namely SIMD-0550 and SIMD-0553. Grayscale's note is careful to add that, under current network conditions, the extra burn from SIMD-0553 is still modest compared with daily issuance, meaning SIMD-0550's faster decline is doing most of the heavy lifting toward that 2031 estimate.

Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, said this week that Solana's plan has broader support and is more likely to be implemented than Ethereum's. He also noted that a scarcer circulating supply could support prices, potentially offsetting the reduction in staking income for validators and ETF holders alike.