Schwab Expert Sees Fair Value in Bitcoin at $95,000

Charles Schwab's Head of Crypto Research, Jim Ferraioli, estimates Bitcoin's fair value to be around $95,000. This valuation is based on Bitcoin's mining economics rather than short-term market sentiment.

Ferraioli explains that the most efficient Bitcoin miners currently produce BTC at a cost of about $60,000, while less efficient miners are closer to $95,000. He draws a comparison with traditional commodity markets, where producers generally operate on relatively thin margins, making production costs a useful benchmark for estimating fair value.

The lower mining-cost estimate of around $60,000 represents a potential fundamental support zone and aligns with Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, which has recently been in the $60,000-$62,000 range. Ferraioli emphasizes that his figure isn't a price target but rather a valuation based on the economics of Bitcoin production.

Despite being in a seasonally weaker period, often referred to as 'Bitcoin winter,' Ferraioli believes risk assets have historically performed better toward the end of the year. This could lead to a potential year-end rally if market conditions improve.