Senate Faces Uphill Battle to Pass Clarity Act as Odds Plummet to 30%

The US Senate has four working days to pass the CLARITY Act, which is now estimated to have only a 30% chance of success, according to Galaxy Digital.

In a July 24 note to clients, the crypto investment firm reduced its estimate for the bill's chances this year from 50%, citing the need for lawmakers to reach an agreement by July 30 to leave enough time for floor proceedings before the August recess.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital's head of research, stated that 'the time for incremental negotiations is over. We need a last-ditch effort'.

The warning came after Senate Republicans released an updated version of the crypto market-structure bill, which merges measures approved by the Banking and Agriculture committees with additional government ethics restrictions, law-enforcement provisions, and changes to the GENIUS Act.