September's Grim Pattern Looms Large Over Bitcoin and US Stocks
September has a notorious reputation on Wall Street, especially during US midterm election years. In fact, data from Hartford Funds shows that across the last 10 midterm cycles, the average stock-market low arrived on September 2.
The damage varied enormously, with stocks falling by as much as 33.75% in 2002 and only 7.40% in 2014.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $77,500, while US stocks remain close to record highs and long-term bond yields stay unusually elevated.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized that the primary focus remains strictly on curbing elevated inflation, with a non-negotiable 2% target. Inflation is not just high, it's accelerating, with the PCE price index rising 3.7% over 12 months and 4.1% in the six-month pace.
The 30-year Treasury yield has also reached 5.28%, while the effective fed funds rate stands at only 3.63%. Kalshi traders now put September Fed hike odds at 53%, against roughly 48% for a hold.