SocGen Cuts Price Target on Circle Internet Amid Weaker Crypto Market

Financial services firm Bernstein SocGen has lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group to $140 from $190 while maintaining an Outperform rating. This move reflects a decrease in USDC supply estimates due to crypto market weakness. The firm predicts approximately $170 billion in USDC supply by 2028, down from the previous estimate of $290 billion.

The USDC supply ended the second quarter of 2026 at around $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter. However, average supply rose modestly to around $76 billion quarter-over-quarter. The firm expects USDC growth to be driven by partnerships in payments, financial services, real-world assets tokenization, and its role in the agentic economy.

Bernstein SocGen values Circle Internet based on a long-term discounted cash flow model, implying approximately 23 times calendar year 2028 adjusted EBITDA. This is supported by revenue and adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth rates of around 36% and 52% over calendar years 2026-28.

Wall Street analysts' price targets range from $50 to $243, with the company's next earnings report scheduled for August 5, 2026. The acquisition of IBM's blockchain patent portfolio by Circle Internet Group has also been noted as a significant development in the evolving digital asset market.