Social Security COLA Estimates Surge as Inflation Data Nears

The Social Security Administration is expected to announce a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027, and current estimates point to a larger increase than beneficiaries received this year. Forecasts from The Senior Citizens League and AARP range from 3.6% to 3.8%, which would be significantly higher than the 2.8% adjustment applied to 2026 benefits.

According to the Social Security Trustees Report, the intermediate assumption for the COLA in December 2026 was 2.7%. However, inflation has accelerated since then, leading to a revision of this estimate. The next major clue on inflation will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' release of July CPI data on August 12.

The exact figure is still months away, but current estimates are based on recent inflation data and expectations for prices over the coming months. For beneficiaries, even a few tenths of a percentage point can make a noticeable difference in their monthly payments.