Stablecoin Illusion: $35 Trillion in Transaction Volumes Masks Limited Payment Activity

The $35 trillion stablecoin illusion has sparked debate about its actual use in the real economy. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that stablecoin transaction volumes reached around $35 trillion annually in 2025, but this number is misleading.

Gross on-chain totals capture trading, exchange movements, smart-contract operations, and repeated transfers, making the market look larger than its current use in commerce. The BIS estimated payment-related flows at only around $390 billion in 2025, barely more than one dollar of payment activity for every ninety dollars in the headline total.

The measurement problem lies in distinguishing between economic transactions and technical movements on the blockchain. A transfer of $10 million in stablecoins may represent various activities, including corporate payments, crypto exchange movements, or automated smart contracts.

Visa has developed an adjusted methodology to filter out non-payment-related activity, resulting in dramatically lower volume estimates. However, even adjusted stablecoin volume is not directly comparable to real-economy payments.

The BIS estimate of $390 billion in payment-related stablecoin flows during 2025 suggests that actual payments remain a small minority of stablecoin activity. Nevertheless, this figure is large enough to support specialized cross-border corridors and business-to-business settlement.