Stablecoin Market Poised to Surpass $200 Billion in Retail Purchases by 2030

The stablecoin market is poised to become a major player in retail payments, according to Deloitte's forecast. By 2030, stablecoins are expected to power over $200 billion in US retail purchases, driven by payment cards, merchant-issued digital dollars, and AI-driven 'agentic commerce'. This growth would make stablecoins a mainstream consumer payment infrastructure, competing directly with Visa and Mastercard.

The market has already seen significant growth, with on-chain transfer volume reaching approximately $27 trillion in the twelve months ending April 2026. Meanwhile, the US Senate is moving forward with the GENIUS Act, a federal licensing framework for stablecoins that could unlock institutional-grade issuance and accelerate adoption.

Crypto-backed payment cards are already live from over a dozen issuers, including Coinbase's Coinbase Card, which has processed over $1.5 billion in annualized transaction volume as of its Q1 2026 earnings call. These cards settle in stablecoins on the back end while presenting a standard Visa or Mastercard interface to merchants.

Merchant-issued stablecoins are also gaining traction, with major US retailers exploring proprietary digital dollar projects pending federal licensing legislation. A merchant-issued stablecoin carries near-zero interchange cost compared to traditional card transactions, representing a potential structural cost saving of $40 to $80 billion annually across US retail if adoption scales to 15% of card volume.