Standard Chartered Cuts T-Bill Forecast Despite Holding onto $2T Stablecoin Target

Standard Chartered's analysts have downgraded their forecast for Treasury bill demand but still expect the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028. In a recent report, they projected that stablecoin issuers will generate between $800 billion and $1 trillion in fresh T-bill demand over this period, which is lower than the bank's previous estimate of $1.6 trillion.

The analysts attributed the slowdown in stablecoin market growth to weaker crypto prices and adjustments following the passage of the U.S. GENIUS Act last year. They characterized the slowdown as 'cyclical rather than structural' and maintained their forecast for a $2 trillion market cap.

When combined with expected Federal Reserve purchases, total new T-bill demand could reach approximately $2.2 trillion through 2028. However, net new T-bill supply over the same period is estimated at roughly $1.3 trillion, implying a potential shortfall of around $900 billion.