Strategy Could Triple to $435 if Bitcoin Recovers, Analyst Says

Strategy, a former MicroStrategy and enterprise analytics software company turned corporate bitcoin holder, has seen its stock price drop by over 56% in the past 12 months. The company's current trade at $142.80 is below the average Wall Street price target of $225.93, which implies about 58% upside.

However, Benchmark Company's Mark Palmer believes that Strategy could triple to $435, an implied upside above 200%. His model relies on bitcoin yield accretion through low-cost debt and above-NAV equity issuance, a structural premium to NAV driven by institutional demand for a liquid bitcoin vehicle, and continued capital-markets execution alongside the software business.

While most analysts are less aggressive but still constructive, with 14 out of 15 rating the stock Buy or better, Palmer's target requires a meaningful recovery in bitcoin over the next 12 to 24 months. The bear case takes over if bitcoin is stuck in an extended bear cycle or a policy shock closes off equity issuance.

Strategy's drawdown stands alone in size compared to its peers Coinbase and MARA Holdings, which have fallen by 39.82% and 25.15%, respectively, over the past year.