Tensions in Persian Gulf Support Oil Prices Amid Ongoing Disruptions
Oil prices remain supported by tensions between the US and Iran in the Persian Gulf. Despite recent flare-ups, oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, averaging over 9 million barrels per day (b/d), thanks to US Navy escorts.
OPEC+ kept its output quotas unchanged for October, but most members are producing below their quota due to ongoing disruptions in the region. Speculators have increased their net long position in ICE Brent, buying 37,837 lots and leaving them with a net long of 261,435 lots as of last Tuesday.
The recent escalation between Iran and the US has also affected European gas prices, with the TTF trading almost 4% higher. However, LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports have not kept pace with crude oil flows, leaving the gas market vulnerable ahead of the 2026/27 heating season.