The Wild Ride of the $10K Experiment: How Timing and Hype Shaped Asset Returns

A recent analysis by MarketWise looked at 21 different assets, including cryptocurrencies, stocks, ETFs, and collectibles, to see how a $10,000 investment in each would have performed over a five-year period. The results showed that the market is shaped as much by timing and hype as by fundamentals, with outcomes ranging from life-changing gains to total losses.

The top performer was Solana, which turned $10,000 into $357,628 (+3,476%) in just five years, starting at a price of only $2.49 in January 2021. On the other hand, Bed Bath & Beyond investors were wiped out entirely, with their initial investment losing its entire value.

Other notable performers included a sealed Pokémon card box, which returned +1,750%, and a pair of Travis Scott x Fragment Air Jordan 1 sneakers, which nearly matched Dogecoin's performance. However, AI investing was found to be overhyped, with three leading AI and innovation ETFs averaging just +28% in five years.

The study also highlighted the importance of timing when it comes to investments. For example, January 2021 buyers of Dogecoin were rewarded with a +919% return, while those who bought at the peak price in May 2021 lost most of their investment. Similarly, GameStop's performance varied wildly depending on when one invested.