Trump's Bitcoin Bet: Standard Chartered Reaffirms $500K Forecast Amid Geopolitical Shift

Standard Chartered's $500K Bitcoin forecast has been getting renewed attention after President Trump framed his support for Bitcoin in explicitly geopolitical terms. In a White House event on July 6, Trump argued that ceding ground in digital assets would hand China a strategic advantage.

Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick first made this $500K forecast during a February 2025 appearance on CNBC. He predicted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 within that year and $500,000 before Trump left office. However, the 2025 target was significantly missed, as Bitcoin's all-time high was $126,198 in October.

Standard Chartered revised its 2026 year-end target downward to $100,000 in early 2026, pushing the $500,000 milestone to 2030. Kendrick and his team have maintained their belief in the long-term $500,000 target throughout 2026, attributing it to the anticipated adoption of Bitcoin by sovereign wealth funds and state pension funds.

The bank's updated rationale hinges on a policy environment that has shifted materially since January 2025. Trump's regulatory agenda since returning to office has provided a policy tailwind that Kendrick's model depends on.