TTF Natural Gas Prices Sustain Risk Premium on Gulf Disruptions

Rabobank's Florence Schmit highlights that TTF Natural Gas remains supported by low European storage and disrupted Gulf LNG flows. The absence of meaningful U.S.-Iran progress keeps a structural risk premium in prices, with 2026 TTF seen averaging €60/MWh in Q4. For 2027, the base case is €42/MWh, but infrastructure damage could push TTF into a €50, €60/MWh range.

Hormuz risks keep TTF supported, as 'the key issue is therefore not whether an occasional vessel can pass through Hormuz, but whether negotiations can produce a stable framework that restores Qatari LNG exports on a sustained basis.'

Schmit emphasizes that 'as long as there are no meaningful U.S.-Iran negotiations, there will be no meaningful surge in LNG flows out of the Gulf.'