US Housing Cycle Signals Next Market Peak Could Be Imminent

Investors are closely watching stocks and Bitcoin for the next major peak. But according to macro analyst Jason Pizzino, the first warning has already arrived from US housing. His thesis uses an 18-year property cycle drawn from roughly 220 years of US sales data.

The current cycle began around 2011-12 and places the housing peak in 2025-26, with a possible trough around 2029-30. The latest data does not prove the cycle, but it makes the call harder to dismiss. US home prices rose 1.5% year-on-year in June, while falling in real terms for a 13th straight month.

The median price fell to $393,800, its lowest in five years. Builder confidence sits at 35, far below the neutral 50 line. Pizzino's key signal is D.R. Horton, which peaked before the broader market during the last housing cycle. Its late-2024 peak, using the same pattern, points to a possible stock-market top around late 2026 or early 2027.

D.R. Horton closed Friday at $142.75. Pizzino says a break below roughly $130 would strengthen his case. Stocks remain near records, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,718.60 on Friday, about 1% below its August 13 record.