VanEck: Bitcoin's Downturn Not Yet Over, Despite Signs of Late-Stage Sell-Off

Bitcoin's downturn appears to be in its late stages, but analysts at VanEck warn that it's too early to confirm a cycle bottom. According to their assessment, only two-thirds of capitulation indicators are currently active. The cryptocurrency has already lost about 49% from its all-time high set in October 2025.

The 30-day realized volatility has dropped to 27.2%, significantly below the long-term average of around 80%. Despite these signs, VanEck experts caution that history doesn't promise a quick recovery. They compared the current situation with previous periods when eight to 12 capitulation indicators were simultaneously triggered.

The result showed that the average Bitcoin return 90 days after such signals was 12.8%, and 180 days later, it was 32%. This is lower than the typical historical return of the asset over these horizons, which is 15.2% and 36.3%, respectively.

VanEck expects the current downturn to be less severe than in past cycles, attributing this difference to the emergence of U.S. spot ETFs, a larger share of institutional investors, and the absence of systemic collapses like Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX. Analysts also noted that the cycle's duration is shorter than previous bear markets, which averaged 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown.