VanEck Sees Bitcoin Nearing Cyclical Bottom Amid Signs of Exhaustion

VanEck, a well-known financial firm, believes that Bitcoin is nearing a cyclical bottom. According to the company's Managing Director and Head of National Accounts, Pat Schramm, the post-halving bear phase that began around Q4 2024 is showing signs of exhaustion.

The decline in Bitcoin price from its peak near $125,000 to the low $60,000s is seen as a normal part of the four-year halving cycle. VanEck emphasizes that these cycles are features, not structural breaks.

The firm's GEO framework tracks global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity. Currently, two of the three signals are neutral, while ecosystem leverage reads as constructive, indicating near-bottoming conditions.

VanEck also highlighted gold's recent consolidation as a pause within a structural bull market. Central banks are seen as net buyers, widening fiscal deficits, and inflation running persistently above target. The company pointed to its own spot Bitcoin ETF, HODL, and NODE, an actively managed fund that incorporates Bitcoin cycle indicators, as investment options.

The broader message from the outlook is that allocators should stay invested in structural themes while redeploying into areas of cyclical weakness.