XRP ETF Inflows Fall Short of Predictions

JPMorgan analysts predicted in January 2025 that spot XRP ETFs could gather between $4 billion and $8 billion within six to twelve months of launching.

The forecast was based on the performance of Bitcoin's funds, which had absorbed about 6% of Bitcoin's market cap in their first year, roughly $108 billion. JPMorgan applied the same take-up rates to XRP's smaller market cap to arrive at its estimate.

A month later, the bank refined the band to $4.3 billion to $8.4 billion while warning that altcoins still lacked regulatory clarity at the SEC and CFTC.

In April 2025, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, initiated coverage on XRP with a report projecting the same $4 billion to $8 billion of ETF inflows in the first twelve months. He built his entire price roadmap on top of those inflows, proposing XRP would reach $5.50 by the end of 2025, $8 in 2026, and $12.50 by 2028.

However, both banks assumed the buyers who filled Bitcoin's funds would also buy XRP's. This untested assumption is where the forecasts would come apart.