XRP Flashes Record Oversold Signal Amid Tightening Exchange Supply
XRP is showing signs of being extremely oversold, according to market analyst Ash Crypto. The asset has reached its most oversold level on record, with its monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below the extreme levels seen during the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash.
Despite the RSI reading not guaranteeing an immediate rally, such readings have historically appeared near major market bottoms as selling pressure begins to fade. XRP remains about 72% below its all-time high after briefly dipping near $1 last month.
The bullish case is also being reinforced by on-chain data pointing to tightening exchange supply. Upbit's XRP reserves continue to decline, while Binance still holds roughly 200 million more XRP than it did before the explosive October 2025 rally.
A similar supply squeeze preceded XRP's October 2025 breakout, when falling exchange reserves were followed by a surge in buying pressure. Historical cycle analysis is adding to the optimism, with on-chain analytics platform XRP Update estimating a theoretical target of around $33 based on the 2017 cycle and about $7.70 using the 2021 cycle.
Averaging these historical scenarios produces a reference price near $20. Beyond technicals, XRP Ledger fundamentals continue to strengthen, with daily active addresses climbing 2.3% to roughly 14,300 ahead of the October 24-25 XRPL Hackathon.