XRP's Path to Supplanting Bitcoin: Growth and Adoption

Ripple CTO David Schwartz recently reignited debate over XRP potentially surpassing Bitcoin's market capitalization, suggesting it is more likely to happen through XRP's growth and adoption rather than a collapse in Bitcoin's price.

Crypto analyst Zach Rector analyzed the implications of this statement on XRP's price using both market cap and fully diluted valuation methods. He calculated that at a $1.5 trillion valuation, roughly where Bitcoin's market cap is today, XRP would be near $23.91 using its current circulating supply of about 62 billion tokens.

Rector also considered the scenario where Bitcoin reaches a higher all-time high market cap of $2.5 trillion, resulting in an XRP price of just under $40. When accounting for XRP's full 100 billion token supply, Rector's calculations yielded fully diluted values of $15 at a $1.5 trillion valuation and $25 at $2.5 trillion.

Rector then ran the scenario through Claude to stress-test his conservative estimate, with the AI pushing back that his numbers understated the case. This implies that the base-case estimates of $15 to $25 for XRP's price represent the floor rather than a ceiling in this scenario.