XRP's Price Squeeze Unravels: Will It Rebound to $2.00 or Fall Back to $1.00?

XRP's price skyrocketed from $1 to $1.66 in just three days at the end of August, but where will it go next? The surge was largely driven by a short liquidation cascade rather than steady accumulation.

Three key events have been moving the price: Evernorth clearing its SEC hurdle with its proposed business combination with Armada Acquisition Corp. II, ETF inflows waking up after months of dormancy, and the XRP Ledger crossing 5 billion lifetime transactions. However, only one of these is genuinely new.

ETF flows are particularly significant, with $28.14 million in net inflows on August 26 being the second-largest single day this year and the strongest in over seven months. This follows a streak of multiple weeks without a single day of net outflows, with cumulative inflows since launch nearing $1.62 billion.

Looking at the chart, the rally from $1.05 to $1.40 happened so fast that almost no volume traded in between, leaving a price vacuum under the market between roughly $1.10 and $1.30. This means there is nothing structural to catch a falling price inside this zone.

For now, XRP is still holding above its key daily moving averages and is up meaningfully on the month, making it a pullback inside an uptrend until proven otherwise. The immediate ceiling is $1.43 to $1.47, with $1.55 being the level that matters, it was the floor of the post-spike consolidation and could flip to resistance if lost.

The base case predicts a chop between $1.25 and $1.50, while the bearish case sees XRP falling to $1.20, then $1.10, before potentially retesting $1.00. The latter scenario is driven by Ripple releasing 1 billion XRP from escrow each month, which could outpace ETF inflows.