XRP's Third-Quarter Rebound May Follow Historical Patterns

XRP's price has been in a downtrend since the fourth quarter of 2025, and this year it started on weak footing, trading at $1.8404 at the beginning of 2026.

The first-quarter drop was significant, with XRP falling 10.63 percent in January, 16.32 percent in February, and 2.63 percent in March, for a total decline of 27.1 percent.

This is the first time since the 2022 bear market that XRP has experienced a first-quarter drop, and it's also the biggest first-quarter fall since the first quarter of 2018, when it plunged 77.7 percent after reaching a January peak of $3.31.

While there were signs of a rebound early in the second quarter, with XRP rising 2.04 percent in April, this advance did not last long, and the price fell 2.65 percent in May and plunged 22 percent in June.

The recent pattern is similar to what happened in 2014, 2018, and 2022, where a third-quarter rebound followed consecutive declines in the first half of the year.

Based on past cases, XRP rose an average of 30.6 percent in the third quarter after ending both the first and second quarters lower, which could result in an end-of-quarter price exceeding $1.356 if the same increase is repeated this year.