Zcash Convergence Models Suggest Overvaluation and Potential Price Targets
Zcash (ZEC) has been drawing comparisons to Bitcoin due to their shared maximum supply of 21 million coins. Analyst filbfilb examined ZEC's surge and its potential future convergence with Bitcoin using various metrics, including transaction activity and circulating supply.
According to filbfilb, Zcash currently has approximately 17 million coins in circulation, similar to an earlier stage in Bitcoin's issuance history. However, instead of applying Bitcoin's valuation at that point directly to ZEC, filbfilb adjusted it based on relative network usage.
The result produced an implied ZEC price of around $254, significantly lower than its recent high of $1,300. A second model comparing both networks today resulted in a similarly low implied value near $944 per ZEC.
Filbfilb noted that Zcash's privacy features complicate the calculation, as shielded transactions hide transfer amounts. By assuming 58% of transactions are shielded and averaging the dollar value transferred across each network, filbfilb estimated Zcash's network progress at around 8.03%.
The analysis also considered a hypothetical scenario where Bitcoin's current network valuation is treated as a potential long-term destination. Under this assumption, the transaction-only model resulted in a price of approximately $3,457 per ZEC for a 100% capture scenario, while blending both models produced an estimated value near $7,480.