Zcash Overvalued According to Analyst's Network Activity Models

Analyst filbfilb has developed a series of models to compare Zcash's (ZEC) valuation to Bitcoin's (BTC). According to the analyst, ZEC trades above levels justified by current network activity. The comparison is based on metrics such as transaction activity, transferred value, circulating supply, and potential future convergence between both networks.

The analysis suggests that at an equivalent stage in its issuance history, Zcash's transaction activity would be around 3.71% of Bitcoin's. Applying this percentage to Bitcoin's historical market capitalization results in an implied ZEC price of approximately $254. A second model compares the two networks today, with Zcash processing roughly 1.01% of Bitcoin's transaction count, resulting in an implied value near $944 per ZEC.

However, filbfilb notes that these models have limitations, including differences between architectures and the inability to measure shielded transfer values. He also assumes that a certain percentage of transactions are shielded, which affects the calculation.