Zcash Overvalued According to New Valuation Framework
Renowned analyst filbfilb has developed a Bitcoin-based valuation framework that suggests Zcash (ZEC) is currently trading above levels justified by its current network activity. This comparison between ZEC and BTC is interesting, given both have a maximum supply of 21 million coins.
Filbfilb's model takes into account metrics such as transaction activity, transferred value, circulating supply, and potential future convergence between the two networks.
The analyst compared ZEC with BTC using two models: one that compares their issuance stages, and another that looks at current network usage. The first model resulted in an implied price of approximately $254 per ZEC, while the second produced a value near $944 per ZEC.
However, filbfilb notes that this calculation is complicated by Zcash's shielded transactions, which hide transfer amounts. By assuming 58% of transactions are shielded and using an average dollar value for both observable and shielded transactions, the model reaches approximately 8.03% of Bitcoin's equivalent-stage transfer value.
The results show that if Bitcoin's current network valuation is treated as a potential long-term destination, ZEC could reach a price of $3,457 per unit under a hypothetical 100% capture scenario. However, filbfilb stresses that these are scenarios and not price targets or probabilities.