$2 Billion Tariff Refunds Up for grabs for Swiss Companies

Swiss companies could receive up to $2 billion in tariff refunds from the United States after the Supreme Court struck down a tariff regime initially imposed by President Donald Trump. The largest potential refunds relate to precision and medical instruments, as well as watches, which were exported between April 2025 and February 2026.

UBS economists estimate that up to $2 billion in refunds could be paid out to Swiss companies, with the biggest reimbursements due for precision and medical instruments, as well as watches. The remainder is primarily for coffee, machinery, and electrical equipment.

However, UBS cautioned that exporters may not receive the full benefit because refunds formally accrue to importers. The economists also noted that headline US tariffs on Switzerland are expected to rise to 15% from the current 12.5%, in line with a framework trade deal agreed upon by both countries in November.

Despite this, effective levies are currently around 6% due to pharmaceuticals being largely exempt. UBS expects unemployment to decline and inflation to remain below 1% for 2027, with the Swiss National Bank delivering its first interest-rate increase around the middle of the year.