Forex
ADP Private NFP Misses Expectations with +44K Gain
The latest private nonfarm payroll employment data from ADP was released, showing an increase of +44K in April. This is lower than the expected +68K per Bloomberg consensus.
A comparison with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data since March 2025 shows some divergence between the two sources. The ADP figure has been below expectations for several months, while the BLS data indicates a more robust labor market.
The stochastic trend line in Figure 1 suggests that the ADP and BLS numbers have been diverging over time. This may indicate underlying differences in the way each organization collects and reports employment data.