Alberta Independence Study Reveals Costly Negotiated Separation

A recent study on Alberta's independence debate reveals that negotiated separation would cost more than it saves for residents. The study, which constructed a broader balance sheet, estimated gains of $1,075 per resident from taxes and pension against losses of $6,996 in obligations.

The calculation considered four institutional scenarios: the status quo, inside-Canada autonomy, sovereignty-association, and negotiated independence. Each scenario affects the Alberta economy in seven ways, including trade and regulatory costs, replacing major federal transfers, preserving selected household benefits, creating new administration, servicing a negotiated share of federal debt, receiving a possible fiscal dividend, and receiving a possible pension dividend.

The study found that compared to the status quo, average purchasing power falls by one per cent under inside-Canada autonomy, 4.4 per cent under sovereignty-association, and 9.3 per cent under negotiated independence. The break-even test showed that an additional $252 per resident would be required for autonomy, $1,447 for sovereignty-association, and $3,265 for independence to match the status quo.