AUD/CAD Triangle Breakout Tests Bullish Resolve

The AUD/CAD exchange rate is approaching a critical technical decision point as it tests the top of its multi-month triangle near 0.9920-0.9940. The pair has been consolidating since June, compressing between falling resistance around 0.9940 and rising support from roughly 0.9750.

This tightening range suggests volatility is being stored, with the latest move putting the upper boundary back under pressure. A daily close above roughly 0.9940 would be the cleaner bullish confirmation, breaking the sequence of lower highs within the consolidation and potentially reopening the path towards the previous highs around 0.9950.

However, failure to break the triangle intact would leave AUD/CAD vulnerable to another rotation back towards the middle and lower end of the range. Fundamentals offer some support to the Australian Dollar, with the Reserve Bank of Australia holding its cash rate at 4.35% and inflation remaining above target.