AUD/USD Surges to 18-Week High Amid US Treasury Buyback Plan

The Australian dollar has seen its strongest week in 18 weeks, reaching an 11-week high of 71.9c against the US dollar. The rally is attributed to the surprise US Treasury buyback plan, which has kept the US dollar under pressure.

Attention now shifts to the Jackson Hole symposium later this week, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech will be closely watched for signals on future policy changes. While some expect Warsh to provide a clear signal on interest rates, others believe he may use his speech to define how the Fed operates rather than make any major announcements.

RBA cash rate futures currently imply just 15bp of tightening by April, effectively pricing around a 60% chance of a single hike by then. However, this could shift higher if trimmed mean inflation ticks higher.