August Jobs Report Brings Moderate Gains for US and Canada

The US August non-farm payroll data showed some corrections from recent weakness. We expect an increase of 75k in overall and private sector employment, a moderate gain but still the strongest since April. Unemployment is expected to rise to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June.

In Canada, August employment saw a moderate month with an increase of 20k, following a strong 75.1k in July and a more modest 18.2k in June. Unemployment held at 6.4%, consistent with an economy recovering from the pause initiated by US tariffs in Q2 2025.

In Japan, overall household spending has been poor for the past quarter, but is expected to see normalization once Japanese residents acknowledge the wage/price dynamics persisting. A positive read would be supportive of the BoJ's September hike.