August Jobs Report Surprises with Triple the Expected Jobs

The US stock futures market saw a mixed reaction to the stronger-than-expected August jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 4. The initial forecast had clustered around 53,000 to 56,000 new jobs, but the actual print came in at 162,000, roughly triple the expected figure.

The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in August, matching forecasts. Before the data was released, futures markets were relatively calm, with Nasdaq-100 contracts up around 0.4% to 0.5%, S&P 500 futures nearly flat, and Dow futures slightly negative.

However, following the report, the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the mid-September policy meeting surged to approximately 59%. This led to rising Treasury yields, which pushed bond prices down and made growth stocks more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

The July revision also saw a significant change, with the initial read showing a decline of 23,000 jobs revised to a gain of 21,000. This 44,000-job swing makes the two-month trend look healthier than initially suggested.