Australia CPI Set to Relax Amid Iran Ceasefire

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT. The report is expected to show inflation rose 4% from a year earlier, matching May's reading, and a monthly CPI of 0.2%. The Trimmed Mean CPI, favored by the Reserve Bank of Australia, is forecast at 3.7%, up from 3.6% previously.

According to Governor Michele Bullock, inflation remains too high. The RBA raised interest rates three times this year and left the cash rate target unchanged in June. Policymakers acknowledged the disruption to global oil supply has an impact on inflation, which picked up 'materially' in the second half of 2025.

The recent Iran ceasefire is expected to relax inflation pressures in Australia. A reading in line with expectations should have no material impact on the AUD/USD pair, but anything above 4% could boost speculation for additional rate hikes, making the Aussie stronger in the short term.